首页 - 财经 - 国内经济 - 正文

新华社评论回应GDP数据疑虑:没必要玩数字游戏(全文)

来源:新华社 2016-10-26 17:14:03
关注证券之星官方微博:

原标题:新华社:中国没有必要在GDP增长上玩弄数字游戏

新华社评论回应GDP数据疑虑:没必要玩数字游戏(全文)

据中国网,新华社发表英文评论,回应关于中国平滑GDP数据(data smoothing)的质疑。

新华社评论称,中国经济已经连续三个季度实现6.7%的平稳增长,导致很多分析师怀疑中国在一定程度上平滑了数据。然而,中国政府没有任何目的或者必要去洗白真实的经济状况。连续三个季度经济增速相同显然是一个巧合。中国有充足的政策工具保持经济增速在6.5-7%的区间,包括货币政策和财政政策,以及结构性改革。中国经济再平衡和持续增长的可能性将由时间来证明,而不是分析师。

新华网分析道:

人们总是喜欢用怀疑的眼光来看待中国这个全球第二大经济体,而中国经济连续三个季度增长6.7%,更是引起了评论者们的质疑。

然而事实上,中国没有必要在GDP上玩弄数字游戏。政府今年设定了6.5%-7%的灵活增长区间,而中国拥有充足的工具,包括货币政策、财政政策以及结构性改革,来使经济增速保持在这一区间内。

平滑数据似乎是最简单的方法,但政府十分清楚,这是一种自欺欺人的做法,最终会损害结构性改革和长期经济增长。

诚然,确实有一些数据造假的案例,尤其是地方政府。在去年末的反腐行动中,东北地区的部分省份被发现数据造假。

为解决这一问题,中国去年采取了IMF的标准来加强数据系统,国家统计局官员独立采集地方数据以保证准确性。

本月稍早,中国政府领导层呼吁防范政府数据造假,并誓要严惩数据造假者。

而且,中央政府正在逐渐减少通过GDP表现来评估地方官员,更是减少了数据造假的必要性。

新华网称,连续三个季度经济增速相同显然是一个巧合,但中国拥有一个稳定的经济的这一现象不足为奇。中国将继续推进改革,同时保持经济扩张。中国经济再平衡和持续增长的可能性究竟是奇迹还是海市蜃楼,将由时间来证明,而不是分析师。

以下是新华网评论英文全文:

Commentary: No need for China to fake steady GDP growth

China's economy has achieved steady growth of 6.7 percent for three consecutive quarters, leading many ana l ysts to suspect that there has been a bit of untoward data smoothing.

However, the reality is that the government simply has no incentive or necessity to whitewash the real economic picture.

It's routine for people to view economic data from China, the world's second largest economy, with skeptical eyes, and the fact GDP growth was exactly the same for three consecutive quarters, a first since such figures were released in 1992, raised more than a few eyebrows among commentators.

However, it would not be much of a whitewash by the statistics bureau to indulge in fabrication as such moves would inevitably draw widespread skepticism.

In reality, there is no need to play the numbers game. The government has set up a flexible GDP growth range of between 6.5 percent to 7 percent this year, and China has ample policy tools, including monetary and fiscal policy as well as structural reforms, to keep the economy within this range.

Smoothing the data might seem the easiest way to an end, but the government well-knows that it would be an act of self-delusion that could easily derail structural reforms and hurt economic growth in the long run.

Admittedly, there have been cases of faking statistics, especially by provincial governments; provinces in northeast China were found doctoring GDP data during an anti-corruption probe late last year.

To solve the problem, China adopted IMF standards to strengthen its data system last year and national statisticians now collect their own independent provincial data to ensure accuracy. Earlier this month, the Chinese leadership called for the prevention of fake government statistics and vowed to punish offenders accordingly.

Regardless, central government is now edging away from evaluating local officials solely based on GDP performance, further reducing the incentive for statistics bureaus to massage the figures.

The identical quarterly performance three times in a row is clearly a coincidence, but the implication that China has a stabilizing economy is of no surprise at all.

There is an increasing consensus that GDP data as a key gauge of economic performance is somewhat outdated. It does not necessarily paint the real economic picture, and being overly GDP-oriented can be counterproductive.

There is other economic data that is particularly difficult to manipulate, including electricity output, freight traffic and logistics volume, which all show signs of stabilization and point to a recovery in factory activity and consumption.

Yes, data can be faked just as opinions can be biased, but it is often easier to question the accuracy of economic data rather than attempting to gain a real insight into economic trends through detailed research.

Nevertheless, China will continue to press ahead with its reforms while maintaining economic expansion. Time, not anal ysts, will tell whether China's economic rebalancing and sustainable growth are a miracle or mirage.

微信
扫描二维码
关注
证券之星微信
APP下载
下载证券之星
郑重声明:以上内容与证券之星立场无关。证券之星发布此内容的目的在于传播更多信息,证券之星对其观点、判断保持中立,不保证该内容(包括但不限于文字、数据及图表)全部或者部分内容的准确性、真实性、完整性、有效性、及时性、原创性等。相关内容不对各位读者构成任何投资建议,据此操作,风险自担。股市有风险,投资需谨慎。如对该内容存在异议,或发现违法及不良信息,请发送邮件至jubao@stockstar.com,我们将安排核实处理。
网站导航 | 公司简介 | 法律声明 | 诚聘英才 | 征稿启事 | 联系我们 | 广告服务 | 举报专区
欢迎访问证券之星!请点此与我们联系 版权所有: Copyright © 1996-