(原标题:法案进展更新:参院细节补充版修正案)
参议院针对待表决的S3558今天出了一个细节补充报告,原文链接为:
网页链接
我理解这份报告,相对于之前确实细节的修正版,实锤了几点认知,对于此前市场纠结的“附属公司”、“合同是否包含医保”、“限制是否只针对基因”有了实锤的解释:
1.明确不含生物
原文说“The ban would immediately apply to four companies: BGI Group, MGI, Complete Genomics, and WuXi AppTec. The bill also would require the Administration to review and modify the list of prohibited companies on an annual basis. S. 3558 would permit federal agencies to waive the ban for a maximum of 545 days on a case-by-case basis. ”
虽然法案还有“任何母公司、子公司、附属公司和继承公司”的表述,但实际操作过程中,明确了本次限制只针对“BGI、MGI、Complete Genomics、药明康德”四家,事实上排除了对药明生物的可能影响。
2.明确使用FAR定义不包含医保
原文说“Subsection (h) requires the Federal Acquisition Regulatory Council to make any necessary changes to the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) within 1 year of the issuance of OMB guidance”
第(h)款要求联邦采购管理委员会在OMB指南发布后的1年内对《联邦采购条例》(FAR)进行任何必要的修改,预计也就是往里加名单。
本次OMB被法案明确为后续法案的执行机构,这句话可以理解为OMB后续也是根据FAR执行的,而FAR是明确不包含医保的,只限制联邦直接采购,对实际业务影响在低个位数。
关于适用FAR规则不包含医保,可参考花旗请来的法律专家Timothy原话:
“Concern under the cdmo contract is the definition of contract. The definition of contracts that is now in the house version says that the US government is prohibited from spending money on contracts that are covered by the federal acquisition regulation. Now Ive been a government contracts lawyer for 35 years. I know what that is. And what that is is when the US government buys directly. So for example, the department of defense, if it buys medicine, the FAR covers that. If the VA buys medicine, veterans administration, the FAR covers that. If the CDC Contracts for certain services it covers that. But what isnt covered under the FAR is medicare and medicaid reimbursements that comes under a different law. So drugs that are produced as a consequence of drug development contracted to the biotechnology companies are concerned will not be affected.”
所以法案即便通过,不包含医保,影响也是微乎其微。
3.明确omb作为后续维护名单的机构
给了被纳入名单的公司和OMB申诉的机会。
4.明确了限制基因和对康德制裁理由
本法案补充了大量立法历史和背景,把前因后果和指控理由说的非常清楚,但只包含基因领域。
指控主要针对BGI(华大基因),对药明康德指控基本只限于ATU部分,用了预防性指控,认为药明康德有采集基因信息的许可,且xx一旦要求公司提供基因信息,公司没法拒绝,对康德并没有实锤犯事儿的证据:
WuXi ATU Opens New Facility in Philadelphia, Tripling Testing Capacity to Support Global Customers, Navy Yard (Nov. 15, 2021) (navyyard.org/blog/wuxi-atu-opens-new-facility-in-philadelphia-tripling-testing-capacity-to-support-global-customers/);Complete Genomics opens $3.2 million manufacturing facility at its San Jose headquarters, PR Newswire (Nov. 16, 2023) (网页链接).
这也给了康德合理的游说角度,对ATU资产加以处理刻不容缓。
另外文中还提到15家公司被授予了基因信息采集权,这几家公司是有可能后续被法案名单审核的,需要加以甄别。
后续名单增加生物概率较低,因为生物并没有CCP授权的基因信息采集权,也没有基因相关业务。
综上所述,目前两个版本法案都已经彻底明朗:
参议院版本法案不含药明生物名字,不含医保,限制基因业务,可以说和药明生物几乎完全没有关系了(这是今天这份法案细节报告,相对于过去的主要增量变化);
众议院版本法案有药明生物名字,但也明确不含医保,对公司实际业务影响是低个位数的。
无论两份法案最终通过哪份,对药明生物业绩的实际影响,都是可以用底线思维做评估的,利空微乎其微,机构是该跳出对法案线性外推的担忧惧、客观的评估法案对公司实际的影响了。
对药明康德影响也边际改善了,之前认为华大和康德两个针对力度是一样的,但从现在看举证过程,其实康德的指控很边缘,甚至如果剥离基因业务也能保平安。
$药明生物(02269)$ $药明康德(02359)$ $药明合联(02268)$