（原标题：SFC Markets and Finance | Navigating Economic Cycle: How is the development potential of Guangdong?）
南方财经全媒体记者杨雨莱 李依农 广州报道
Editor's note:
Guangdong has long been recognized as a key pillar of China’s economy, accounting for about one-tenth of the country's GDP. Meanwhile, Guangdong is ramping up efforts to construct an end-to-end innovation chain, aiming to become a globally influential innovation base. However, Guangdong’s economy is facing some challenges as global economic growth stagnated. Going forward, how can Guangdong remain resilient and sustainable growth? SFC Markets and Finance's special coverage "Navigating Economic Cycle" will try to find answers.
The latest figures indicate that China's 2024 goods import and export value reached 43.85 trillion yuan, up 5% year-over-year. Guangdong, leading in foreign trade, contributed over 40% to national growth and is approaching a 9 trillion yuan foreign trade milestone.
Notably, Guangdong's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports soared from 11.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 843.3 billion yuan in 2023, averaging a 71.4% growth rate. In Guangzhou's Panyu district, Temu, a cross-border platform under Pinduoduo Group, launched on multiple overseas sites, drawing over 100 million downloads and surpassing ten billion US dollars in online sales.
What were the highlights of Guangdong's 2024 foreign trade? Were there significant structural improvements? And will cross-border e-commerce be the next growth driver?
Chen Wanling, Dean of Research Center for international Trade and Economics at Guangdong University of Foreign Studies brought his ideas to us.
Guangdong is good at satisfying consumer needs
Chen Wanling: The data is not fully available yet. The growth rate of the national import and export value is 5%. I estimate Guangdong's foreign trade growth will be slightly higher than that. The province's cross-border e-commerce has seen a 70% growth, showing an advantage in Guangdong. Cross-border e-commerce caters to individual or consumer needs, and meets specific demands in overseas markets. Guangdong might be doing better in this field. Because our processing trade enterprises or private enterprises may drive this growth. Guangdong has such a trend.
Economic structure is another important factor. For example, whether the sector an enterprise belongs to is the high-tech or the new technology sector. Also, as we've mentioned before, the "new three". Exports of them have seen significant growth. If this growth is substantial, the economic transformation may have already yielded results. When it comes to the market structure, if we still perform well in exports despite pressure from Europe and the U.S., that may be made through other countries in Southeast Asia and South America. We can see the change in outbound investment markets.
The transformation of foreign trade is in progress
Chen Wanling: As Trump prepares to take office, everyone expected that tariffs might increase. But recently, there's a sense that Trump might ease up a bit. I estimate that the trade tensions may not be as intense as before, which could give us some breathing room. If the China-U.S. relations will improve, then perhaps next year, or in the coming years, the situation might be better. We'll see, after China's opening up and substantial compromises, whether there will be some easing in our trade relations with the U.S. So I think cross-border e-commerce could signify a shift in ways of trade, but it cannot completely transform our growth model. The growth model depends on our product structure and investments. So further observation is needed for the shift of the growth model. It's still too early to draw conclusions. Because during the transformation, if the trade continues to grow rapidly, it may take three to five years to accumulate. The sustained high growth will accelerate the accumulation process and impact the entire structure. Then, the transformation could succeed.
"One in every four new energy vehicles in the country is 'Made in Guangdong'".
New industries, business forms, and models are emerging in Guangdong. "Guangdong-made" 5G, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots, among other key technologies and products in the industrial chain, have entered the global first tier. Guangdong's low-altitude economy has also taken off, with a scale exceeding 100 billion yuan to date.
What breakthroughs has Guangdong achieved in industrial structure transformation in recent years? While developing new industries, can traditional industries also be effectively upgraded? What directions can industrial structure transformation proceed in the future? We invited An Ran, the Director of Institute for Economic and Industrial Planning of GBA at China Development Institute to join our discussion.
Guangdong’s industrial transformation in three aspects
An Ran: I believe that in recent years, Guangdong has made remarkable progress in industrial transformation and upgrading. This is mainly reflected in three aspects. First, in terms of industrial structure, the share of advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries in our total industrial output is rising rapidly,and represents one of the most significant results of our transformation and upgrading.
Second, over the years, Guangdong enterprises have developed rapidly. High-tech enterprises, national manufacturing champions,and national “little giant” specialized enterprises have supported the manufacturing sector tremendously. Countless enterprises have played a key role in driving the transformation of manufacturing.
Third, Guangdong's focus on cultivating the “10+10” industries, many industrial clusters, has become a critical indicator of industrial growth and transformation. Especially in next-generation information technology, green petrochemicals, smart appliances, advanced materials, modern light industry and textiles, software and information services, modern agriculture and food, and automobiles, all have exceeded one trillion yuan in output, providing strong support for the upgrading of Guangdong’s industrial structure.
New industries effectively support traditional ones
An Ran: While developing emerging industries, I believe the upgrading of traditional industries is a parallel process. When Guangdong laid out its "10+10" industries, many of our strategic pillars industries such as petrochemicals, electronic information, light industry and textiles, bio-medicine, smart appliances, and automobiles are closely integrated with emerging industries. So in planning and developing strategic emerging industries such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, we have provided strong support and feedback to our existing electronic information industry.
Similarly, the development of new energy, laser additive manufacturing, and many other advanced materials have effectively supported our automobile industry, particularly the growth of new energy vehicles. Therefore, while we are advancing emerging industries, they are already driving the effective upgrading and support of traditional industries. In areas like intelligent manufacturing and digital precision, we are upgrading products in traditional manufacturing pillar industries, achieving scale, reducing costs, and improving efficiency. This integrated approach offers new development paths and growth points for upgrading traditional industries, providing strong momentum for economic growth.
The focus should be on leveraging new technologies
An Ran: I believe that the future of industrial transformation should focus on investments in new quality productive forces and new growth drivers. Over the past few years, Guangdong, in advanced manufacturing, has made substantial fixed asset investments, including enterprise technology upgrades and the deployment of new production factors. In the future, we may need to further increase investments in high-tech manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, life sciences, electronic information, communication equipment, and computer equipment. At the same time, we must focus more on emerging industries and the global frontier of technological innovation. We can leverage cutting-edge technologies in future industries to drive the expansion of strategic emerging industries and enhance global competitiveness.
Overall, industrial development in Guangdong is a gradual process of replacement and upgrading. In the next phase, the focus should be on leveraging new technologies in future industries to expand the scale of strategic emerging industries, while effectively supporting the upgrading of our traditional pillar industries.
Facing the complex international situation, Guangdong continues to break through and steadfastly advances high-level opening up to the outside world. Recently, the Guangdong Subordinate Office of the General Administration of Customs introduced twenty measures to further support Guangdong's foreign trade in maintaining a good momentum and reaching new heights.
How is Guangdong's economic development momentum in 2025? What policy advantages does it have? What are the more potential development spaces? An Ran also provided his thoughts for us.
Guangdong need to navigate the environment in 2025
An Ran: I believe 2025 will be a year with significant uncertainties and unpredictable economic changes. Guangdong should focus on its strengths to navigate this environment. On one hand, we need to enhance the competitiveness of our export-oriented industries. While external conditions may shift, improving the competitiveness of our export industries and the scale of our industrial clusters remains a top priority.
On the other hand, exploring new markets is crucial. This includes tapping into external markets, enterprises go abroad, as well as stimulating new domestic consumption, both are vital for Guangdong’s economic development.
Lastly, greater attention should be given to industrial upgrading within Guangdong, including the application of new industrial scenarios. Cultivating and supporting emerging industries will be key to driving our industries into a virtuous growth cycle.
Chief Producer: Yu Xiaona
Supervising Producer: Shi Shi
Editor: Li Yinong
Reporter: Yang Yulai
Video Editor: Li Qun Cai Yutian
New Media Coordination: Ding Qingyun, Zeng Tingfang, Lai Xi, Huang Daxun
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Produced by: Southern Finance Omnimedia Group
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