SFC Outlook 2025 | Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi: Investors Should be Cautious and Patient

（原标题：SFC Outlook 2025 | Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi: Investors Should be Cautious and Patient）

南方财经全媒体记者 施诗  杨雨莱 广州报道

In the past week, the U.S. President Donald Trump topped the headlines. On the first day of his second term, he signed plenty of executive orders. Investors are worrying about his economic policy most. How will the potential tariffs affect the U.S. economy and the global economy? What should investors do this year when facing a range of new dynamics in 2025?

Mark Zandi, the Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics expressed in the interview with SFC journalist that the global economy performed well in 2024. But there are lots of variability from the faster-growing U.S. economy to the weaker-growing European economy. Nevertheless, he considered the U.S. economy in 2025 to be very difficult to measure up given Trump’s policies with regard to tariffs and immigration.

"It's hard to see making a lot of money anywhere given the uncertainty and the risk." For the investment in 2025, Mark Zandi suggested that investors should be cautious and patient. However, he considered the global economy will, in the long run, perform well, so being patient and the investments will pay off.

SFC Markets and Finance: Trump is a buzzword in the past several days. So Let’s begin with his policy. How will Trump’s economic policy influence the U.S. economy?  

Mark Zandi: I think tariffs are a bad idea, particularly if they're broad-based across lots of different countries and products, what economists call a negative supply shock. It raises prices, causes inflation, undermines consumers purchasing power, and thus slows growth. So it both slows growth and raises inflation, complicates things for the Federal Reserve. So I think that's a policy that will be very difficult for the U.S. economy, for the global economy. 

SFC Markets and Finance: Like you said, the U.S. inflation may rise again. So how will the Fed make decisions on the monetary policy this year?

Mark Zandi: I think the Fed will be on hold. The Fed, as you know, has been cutting interest rates since last September and cut rates almost a little over a percentage point during that time. But they indicated at their last meeting a few weeks ago that they are going to go on hold, that they're going to wait and see exactly what President Trump has in mind with the tariff policy and his immigration policy. And once the dust settles and they get some clarity, they might start cutting rates again. But that probably won't be until the second half of this year, perhaps even late this year, before we see more rate cuts. 

SFC Markets and Finance: How many rate cuts will take place?

Mark Zandi: I expect two, probably one in September, one in December. I think by that time, there will be some clarity around President Trump's economic policies and what kind of impact they will have. And I do suspect that the higher tariffs and deportations of immigrants will slow economic growth sufficiently that will allow the Fed to continue to or at least to resume cutting interest rates. I think they'll cut rate slowly. I don't think they'll move quickly because of the uncertainty around economic policy. But I do think by the end of the year, they'll start cutting rates. So I'd count on two rate cuts, quarter point each time this year. 

SFC Markets and Finance: So it seems like they will cut 50 basis points in total?

Mark Zandi: Yeah, about a half a percentage point. So the Federal fund rate target, which is the rate the Fed controls, is sitting currently just under 4.5%. So by the end of the year, if you told me the funds rate was closer to 4%, I’d say that sounds about right. 

SFC Markets and Finance: Trump declared national energy emergency to accelerate permitting of oil, gas and power projects. How will his preference on traditional energy affect the U.S. economy?

Mark Zandi: As you know, under President Biden, there was a lot of incentives, tax incentives to move over to clean energy away from fossil fuels, away from oil, natural gas and coal. President Trump has a very different perspective on that, taking away those benefits and subsidies, and providing them to fossil fuel. And so I think that suggests maybe we'll see somewhat lower oil prices, but really on the margin because oil prices are determined in a global marketplace. The U.S. has some impact on that, but so does China, so does other parts of the world. So I don't expect a big change there. 

And I do think it's unfortunate because clearly, as we look forward, given climate change and the impact that's having on the climate and the economy, the longer it takes us to transition over to clean energy, the more damage to the climate and the more damage that will be to our economy longer run. But I don't expect any major significant changes as a result of the policy, certainly not in 2025. 

SFC Markets and Finance: Trump will also be more aggressive on the immigration. What’s the impact of his policy on the U.S. labor market? 

Mark Zandi: President Trump has been talking about a very restrictive immigration policy on the campaign trail. He talked about deportation, mass deportation. There are 11-12 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States. And he's talking about deporting them. I don't think it'll be able to do that or I suspect though. With some pickup in deportation, that'll cause a real tightening in the labor market, particularly in industries like agriculture, manufacturing, construction, transportation, distribution, leisure, hospitality, retailing. These are industries where immigrants play a very large role in the labor force. And if you see deportation, that's going to cause significant tightening those labor markets. Businesses in those industries will have to raise wages. And that's another reason to be nervous about inflation in 2025 going into 2026.  

SFC Markets and Finance: We talk a lot about Trump's policies. So would you like to predict the U.S. economy in 2025?

Mark Zandi: I think it'd be okay, not like 2024. The 2024 was a very good year for the U.S. economy, strong growth, low unemployment across all demographic groups, consumer spending was strong, the stock market was at a record high, housing values were at record highs, interest rates were coming down. It really was a very good year, so it would be very difficult for 2025 to measure up given the policies that are going to be pursued with regard to tariffs and immigration. But having said that, the American economy feels very resilient and should be able to navigate through and have a reasonably okay year in 2025. 

SFC Markets and Finance: Will the U.S. stock market still perform strong?

Mark Zandi: I suspect the stock market is going to go sideways here for a while. It's gone up a lot since the pandemic. Just before the pandemic five years ago, the stock market in the U.S. has doubled. I mean, that's an extraordinary performance. Rose 20%-25% last year, and 20%-25% the year before that. So, good reasons for it. The American economy has been strong and tech companies have been doing fabulously well. The hyperscalers, so called hyperscalers, that are now investing aggressively in artificial intelligence. They've done very well. But even given that, I think the stock market is discounted a lot of good news and I suspect it's going to struggle a bit in 2025 and 2026. I don't expect big declines, but I don't expect it to continue on the kind of the rocket trajectory it's been on over the past five years. 

SFC Markets and Finance: So should investors be cautious? 

Mark Zandi: Yeah I'd be cautious. But look, if you're investing in the stock market, you should have a long-term horizon. Over the next 10 years, stock market will go up, it’ll go down, it'll go all around. But you as an investor, you should look through all of that and continue to look to the long run. And in the long run, I think the American economy will be fine, perform well. Corporate earnings will be strong and you'll be rewarded. So be patient, don't get caught up in the ups and downs and all arounds and just look through it. And I think you'll be fine as an investor. 

SFC Markets and Finance: Let's move to the global economy. What do you think about the global economy this year? 

Mark Zandi: The global economy has been okay. It's been led by the U.S. economy. That's been the leading economy in 2024 going into 2025, but there's a lot of variability. The European economy has struggled, particularly the big German economy. And it's adjusting to much higher energy costs. 

The big Chinese economy has been kind of okay. It has hit its target, growth targets with a little bit of help from the central bank and from fiscal policymakers and support. 

So all in all, it's been an okay year for the global economy, but lots of variability from the faster growing U.S. economy and compared to the weaker growing European economy. 

SFC Markets and Finance: In terms of European economy, how will it be affected by Trump's tariff policy?

Mark Zandi: Well, higher broad-based tariffs hurt everybody. And I think the European economy will be hit hard if in fact President Trump does follow through with his talk about broad-based tariffs. I do think if there are higher tariffs, probably will be on the auto industry, but in the German economy, we will struggle with that. I think the Europeans will probably retaliate. They'll come back with their own tariffs and other export restrictions. And so, there's no winners here, everyone's going to lose. But now the European economy is struggling, so anything that will cause it to struggle more. Obviously that's a problem. 

So I think the European economy is got struggle ahead of it if in fact President Trump follows through with his broad-based tariffs. If he does follow through with substantive tariffs, I think that's going to be hard on the entire global economy, including and most significantly the European economy because it's already so soft .  

SFC Markets and Finance: As you mentioned, German economy is struggling. So which country will drive European's economy this year?

Mark Zandi: Those economies in the southern part of Europe are doing quite well. So Spain is doing well. Italy, not too bad. Greece, you remember, was having all kinds of problems not too long ago, but it's kind of leading the way. And that goes to tourism. These are big tourist dependent economies. And you're seeing a revival in the wake of the pandemic. People are traveling again and they're going to these destinations. 

And of course, for Americans, American consumers, Europe is cheap, right? The U.S. dollar is very strong, particularly against the Euro. So American travelers can go to Europe and they're traveling on mass. And that's helping to support those economies. So Germany's lagging, Spain, Italy, Greece, they're doing okay. 

SFC Markets and Finance: How about France?  

Mark Zandi: France is a bit of a struggle. The problem in France, as in some of the other European countries like Germany, is political, right? There's all kinds of political upheaval. Macron has had some difficulty given the elections and the rise of more conservative right wing parties. The Front National is the party that's causing some difficulty for Macron in France. And that's creating a lot of uncertainty. 

Similar kind of dynamics in Germany. Germans are headed towards a new election. And of course, the British just had their election and there was a change in government. So a lot of volatility politically in Europe and that's creating some difficulty, particularly in economy like France.  

SFC Markets and Finance: Britain didn’t have a stable government in the past a few years. How to comment on its economy?

Mark Zandi: The UK has also been a bit of a struggle in the wake of the pandemic. They've had to adjust to higher energy prices. Of course, kind of the fundamental problem is they're adjusting to Brexit. Brexit was back in 2016. The British pulled away from Europe. And that's been an adjustment. It's been a slow growing, slower growing economy as a result. And so it's been a struggle there.

And of course, they’ve had all kinds of political issues as well. As you pointed out, a change in government and that's led to some volatility. They're growing, they're not in recession, but they're not growing very quickly like the big German economy's been a bit of a struggle. 

SFC Markets and Finance: Now let’s switch to Asia, especially China. China's economy grew 5% in 2024, meeting its growth target. How do you think about China's economy?

Mark Zandi: Chinese economy has also had some difficulty. I mean, the reason why it's been able to achieve its growth target, the 5% growth target, and it hit it right on the nose, it is because of economic policy, because of interest rate cuts and because support from the government to prop up the economy. So it's done what it needed to do to achieve those targets, but it's still not performing on all cylinders. It's still a struggle. Fundamental issue is consumers. And there's a lot of the economic policy has been about supporting trade and exports and investment, not consumers and consumer spending. 

And ultimately, I think the Chinese economy has to make that transition from a export, investment led economy to a consumer led economy. And that transitions is difficult. It's not easy. And so that's been weighing on Chinese economic growth. So hit the target, that's great. I suspect it'll hit the target in 2025. Growth will continue to throttle back and slow down and it won't be kind of the juggernaut economy that it had been in the past couple of decades.

SFC Markets and Finance: Do you expect Chinese government will release more measures to maintain Chinese economy’s momentum?  

Mark Zandi: Yeah. I expect the government to remain very supportive of the economy. Anything that it needs to do in terms of that support to hit the growth target, I think it will do. So I expect more. And I think it will be necessary because this transition from an export investment like economy to a consumer economy is not easy, particularly in the context of difficult demographic trends, the decline in the working age population, and also the tariffs and the de-globalizing, decoupling that's occurring with the large U.S. economy suggests that for China to hit its growth targets, it will need additional government support from the central bank in terms of lower interest rates, but also from fiscal policymakers in the terms of taxes and spending. 

SFC Markets and Finance: What are your expectations for China's GDP growth this year? 

Mark Zandi: I expect growth to throttle back just a little. (It will) grow 4.5% this year. I'd say that sounds about right to me, give or take. But I expect a little bit slower growth in 2025 compared to 2024. So similar, maybe just a notch below what we got last year.  

SFC Markets and Finance: Do you think the emerging economies will suffer from de-globalization?  

Mark Zandi: Yeah, I think everyone gets hurt by the de-globalization. It varies a little bit in the sense that if China can't send what it produces to the United States directly, it's going to start shipping and producing in other parts of the world. Southeast Asia, for example, is a very large beneficiary of trade diversion in the first trade wars under President Trump. But broadly speaking, if we're de-globalizing, I think that's a problem. And that means slower growth for the rest, for the entire world. I think that's hard on everybody, including EM economies.

SFC Markets and Finance: So what's your prediction of the emerging countries? 

Mark Zandi: It should be okay. I mean, assuming that the trade war doesn't go off the rails, assuming it's like a low boil as opposed to boiling over, I think the global economy, continues to hang together reasonably. And China does okay, 4.5 % growth is fine. That should be enough support to the most emerging market economies that they should be able to navigate through reasonably well. 

Many EM economies have done a good job, managing fiscal and monetary policy. Their currencies are relatively stable. We're not seeing any leverage in debt is more manageable than it has been historically, despite all of the pressures created by the de-globalization. You don't see EM economies cracking and currency runs and central banks have to jack up interest rates like you have in times past. 

So I expect that we should be okay, not great. And obviously, a lot depends on exactly what President Trump does and how aggressively he pursues the trade war. If he pursues it aggressively, it's going to be a problem for everybody, including the emerging markets. But kind of it just implements it in a way that isn't too disruptive, which is what I would expect, I think EM economy should do okay as well. 

SFC Markets and Finance: In addition to tariffs, what potential risks or challenges we will face this year?  

Mark Zandi: There's a lot of geopolitical hotspots, right? We've got the Russian Ukraine conflicts that's ongoing, all the problems in the Middle East, Israel, Iran and Hamas, and what's going on in Syria and Lebanon. And those are the things we know about that are on the radar screen right now. Often things transpire that we have no sense of at the start of a given year. And that may be the case in 2025. I suspect that the biggest challenge, the potential biggest challenges in 2025 will be more geopolitical. Certainly the trade wars are at the top of the list. But there's other geopolitical hotspots around the world that could heat up here at any time.  

SFC Markets and Finance: Which asset is worth investing more in 2025?  

Mark Zandi: I don't there's any easy money here. There's no smoking gun. I got to invest in this. I mean, all asset prices are pretty highly valued. Stock prices, housing values in many parts of the world, crypto prices are through the roof. It's hard to see making a lot of money anywhere given the uncertainty and the risk. So I think it's about buckling up, and just looking through the volatility, and getting to the other side of all of this. 

I do think the global economy will, in the long run, perform well. We'll figure out these issues and problems and will continue to advance. So be patient. Your investments will pay off. But 2025 might not be the year that you'd hope for, particularly given the very good years we've been through since the pandemic.  

SFC Markets and Finance: So we should keep cash, right?

Mark Zandi: Certainly here in the United States, cash isn't such a bad thing. I mean short-term interest rates are high, even with the Fed rate cuts, you can still get 4% or 5% on a risk free treasury bond. So if you're worried about risk, and don't want to look too long, if you have a short-term horizon, that may not be such a bad investment. 

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